Will Phoenix Allow Kurt Busch to Rise From the Ashes?‏

By John "Dawg" Chapman



OK, by now if you were interested, you've probably read several
different takes on what the immediate future might hold for Kurt.

Being as this is kind of a 'slow news' time. I figured I might as well weigh
in, stick my neck (not too far) out, & give you my thoughts on this.

I've read numerous speculations about next season. Everything from his
winning, to even making the Chase.

Can he win? Sure he can, anyone can. Trevor Bayne, & Bad Brad have
proven that. Brad in James Finch's car, no less. Kind of ironic that this
was the first step, leading to his hiring by Penske. that lead to his
breakout season, that in all probability, lead to Kurt's "mutual" parting
with Team Penske & his ending up with Finch.

Kind of reminds me of the cat, that killed the rat, that ate the malt,
that lay in the house, that Jack built. As he'd previously also been
fired from the house that Jack built. It does sort of tie together, doesn't
it? But I digress.

My unequivocal, 100% iron clad answer to both of these scenarios is
definitely.... maybe, on the winning. But I doubt it. As for the second
part, no way Jose. Just look at the cars that couldn't even give that a
good shot in '11, with a lot more going for them.

Seriously, here's what I do see happening, & needing to happen. If this is
going to be the season that he repairs his image, & starts his move back
up the ladder.

To this point in his career, he's been in Championship, or at least
consistent, winning cars. He's been used to teams that had full time
pit crews. Crews who's only job is to hone their over the wall skills,
& pit the car.

With Crew Chef's that had worked their way up through the ranks
to become CCs on top cars. Engineers, shock specialists, etc,etc, etc.
With his current team he doesn't have that luxury.

Much has been made of the fact that the team gets it's equipment from
Hendrick, just like Stewart-Haas. While the first part is true, I seriously
doubt the just like Tony, part. As Hillary's book pointed out. In Africa,
It takes a village, to raise a child. Well in Cup, It takes a team, to field
a car. I do have to wonder about the current strength of the team that
surrounds Kurt.

I'll have to admit that I don't know very much about Nick Harrison, his
current CC. His Cup record is not very impressive,( nor are his meager
Nationwide stats.) Actually, it's about what you'd expect for a car that
up to this time has been basically a field filler operation. Nick wasn't
CC, when Brad won with this team. He's has had 47 starts, over 2
years.
　
With 0 top 5, 0 T-10, finishes, 0 poles, & only 11 lead lap finishes.
With an average finishing position of 29th, last year. While finishing
30th in owners points. This could very well not be as much a reflection
on his abilities, as much as the circumstances he's found himself in.
They had 26 finishes of 25th or worse. This is for sure going to
improve. Just how much improvement we see depends on more than
just Kurt.

James has already made a big change, by putting Kurt in the car. I think
now, & I do mean NOW, he needs to look at every one in the organization,
top, to bottom. With the shrinkage going on in the Cup, & Nationwide
garages, some very good people are available. With fewer people, each, &
every one needs to be the best he can get. He very well might already have
them, that's for him to decide.

Kurt has repeatedly stated that he wants' to have fun racing. While I've
obviously never been exposed to racing at this level, I doubt that it's
meant to be fun. While I'm sure it can be fun at times. It's also pressure
packed, & the way he's dealt with that pressure, is in large part what got
him where he is. Anyone who thinks that he won't be under much pressure
with this team, isn't looking at the big picture. He really can't afford any
cracks in his composure next season, & it's a very long season.

Marty Robbins, used to do it for fun, but that was another time,
& he had a pretty good day job to fall back on.
If he really wants to have fun, then perhaps he needs to buy a dirt late
model, & go be the big duck, in some little puddle.

Let's hope his work with a sports psychologist, wasn't just damage control.
But, a serious attempt to get at the root causes that brought on his
problems. Because he's going to have a lot of new frustrations to
deal with. How he's able to deal with them, will be the difference between
this being his first step back to where he wants to be, or his current
situation becoming the new reality. So far in both their NASCAR
careers, the Busch Brats, have made 'Busch self control'. into
one of my favorite oxymoron's. Right behind NASCAR credibility.

He's going to need to deal successfully with his issues in public, & treat
the media with respect. Keep his radio conversations, professional.
Then if he wants' to go back to the motor home, & take 'em out on the
crockery, so be it. Pull this off, & I believe he can climb the ladder again,
but it will take some time.

One thing that can be a blessing, or a curse, will be the scrutiny that
Kurt will be under. Handle it correctly, & I believe that the team will
start to pick up some sponsorship. Probably not national companies,
maybe, but small, & mid-sized companies that need the TV exposure
that Kurt, in the 51 car is sure to garner for them. More money, well
spent, should equate to better performance. Once this starts, it should
feed itself.

As far as winning races, this team has proven that it could do it, against
long odds.

If I were in James's shoes, here's what I'd try. I'd enter a second car for
the plate tracks. David Ragan is a very solid plate driver. I'd hire him for
all 4 plate races. That way Kurt would have a good, experienced, team
mate to work with. As Daytona's the best paying race of the season, if the
second car made the field. That would go a long way to funding it for the
rest of the plate races. A good finish for it would just be icing on the
cake. This should give the best shot at a win. Maybe a long shot,
but not as long as winning the first one was.

I expect that if Kurt, & James were to stay together for say, 3 years.
Then we might see them in the Chase, or at least giving it a good run.
But it's just too big a leap for 1 season.

I'm looking more for steady progress, of the baby steps variety next year.
A move from 30, to 20, in points, with 4-5, T-10 finishes, & maybe a T-5
or 2 would be a very good season, & it's doable.

I wouldn't be surprised if this deal has an escape clause, so that if Kurt
were to get a better offer, he could take it. Who knows, with the pressures
on teams now, that could come before the season's out. Personally, I'd
love to see them stay together. They could be good for each other, but
that's asking a lot.

This whole deal is going to be a real test, for both Kurt, & The team, but
it can be done. One thing I can absolutely guarantee.

It's not all going be fun.

What Does NASCAR Get For $15,231,323.00?‏

By John "Dawg" Chapman

What does NASCAR get for 15 million, 231 thousand, 323 dollars?
Not much as it turns out. That's how much prize money the Start & Park
teams took home in 2011 for showing up so that the starting formation
would look the same on TV for the parade lap.

I've heard it said that a part of the TV deal, was that NASCAR would
start 43 cars. I doubt this is accurate, but for some reason NASCAR
seems willing to reward the teams that show up, with no intention
of adding anything to the show.

My question is, do you think NASCAR's getting their money's worth?
Remember we're talking $15 million, 231 thousand, & change. What's
the difference if 43 cars start, & we're down to 37, or so, after 30
laps. Or if only that number started the race?

I've heard all the excuses for allowing this to go on.

First thing people throw out is that these teams are going the S & P
route to keep their teams together, until they can come up with the
money to race. Fair enough, I can understand that, but at what point do
they have to say it's not working? Over the last three seasons, Phoenix
Racing, Phil Parsons, have started 88 races, not counting the ones they
were unable to qualify for, & been running at the end in 5 of them.

Over this same stretch Joe Nemechek (a driver who's skill I admire)
has started 102 races, been running at the end in 7, 5 of them in '09.
Joe was the most successful S & P owner this season. Qualifying for all
36 races, plus running Kevin Conway in 3 more. Joe was able to finish
just one race out of the 36. In these 3 races, Kevin ran a total of 4,
count 'em 4 laps, while winning $234,238. or an average of $58,559.5 per lap.
It would have been $78,079 if he hadn't gotten a little crazy, & run that second lap.
Good work if you can get it.

Another excuse I've heard is that these teams provide employment
in a tough economic environment. OK, things are tough all over. Suppose
that people were hired to build roads that no one was ever going to drive on.
That would provide employment also, but would you consider it money well spent?

I do have to kind of admire Joe Ruttman for showing up at The Rock
in '04 without a pit crew in James Finch's car. I mean at least he was
honest about it. Why would he need a crew? He was allowed to start.
Ka Ching, then was parked by NASCAR on the first lap. Mission
accomplished.

As I said I can understand the strategy, of hanging in, while trying
to put things in place to be able to compete. I just have to wonder,
at what point does it become a business plan?

Both Front Row Racing, & Tommy Baldwin have used the S & P
at times due to economic necessity, but are now racing full time.
More power to them, the only problem is that due to funding, &
the mega-teams. Both programs are mired mostly in the 30's.
Dave Blaney was in line for a good finish at Daytona, until
he was wrecked by Kurt Busch. He steered clear of Kurt at
Talladega, & was able to pull off a third. Got interviewed on
TV afterward. Had to have been a real boost for the team,
as well as Golden Corral, whose Kids Eat Free, promotion
kicked in.

Front Row has both of their cars, the 34, & 38 locked in for the
first 5 races on the new season.

Tommy Baldwin also has the 36 locked in, & is trying to get
the 35 up to speed. I do find Geoffrey Bodine a curious choice
but sounds like he's bringing a little money, & for these teams
money not only talks, it screams.

Kevin Buckler's TRG Racing has come up short, finishing
the season 36th in owners points. Any time teams that really
show up to race, fall out of the top 35, as the 71 did. They
are then subject to being out qualified by the S & P cars.
Thus making it likely that they stay mired below the magic
35th place. Making it that much harder to come up with even
a one race sponsor, much less landing a full season deal.

I'm not meaning to imply that the cars that come to race are in any
better than the S & P teams, quality wise. In fact Joe Nemechek, if he
were to get a little backing, could easily be a solid mid 20's place car.
He regularly qualified well, up among cars with much better backing.
He didn't get the nick name Front Row Joe, for nothing.

For the 71 team next season, finishing 46th shouldn't really be a problem
because of 4 qualified teams going away. At least 2, the 33, & 6, probably
will keep their points & run Daytona. The 33, probably with Austin Dillon,
& the 6, maybe with Ricky Stenhouse. That would leave the slots from the
2 Red Bull cars. So the 71 & 7 should move up based on their finishes.
But this being NA$CAR, & NA$CAR being all about $$$. These spots will
go to the highest bidder, rather than to the next in line. Kevin & Robby
could well end up with them, but they're going to have to pay.

With the shrinkage next year, there will be more opportunities for S & P
teams. Cars are available at bargain rates. Plenty of drivers, with Cup experience,
& skills to get them in the field, & who can blame them?

That begs the question, how many S & P teams are too many?
Next year, instead of 6, we could see 9 or 10.

Here's what I'd really like to see happen. NASCAR could cut the field to 40,
& the 3 less cars would never be missed. Then make the same payout that they
had when the field was at 43. The last thing I'm trying to do is to allow
NASCAR, or Bruton to put more money in their pockets.

In a season when we've lost 4 quality cars, do we really need 4 more field
fillers running around, even if they could get them all to race?
As the field gets weaker, the top 35 rule makes less, & less sense.
The timing is perfect to dump this turkey.

If another of the cuts were to be the past champions provisional,
well I could live with that too.

For an average race this should give them around $200K to work with.
Graduate the money to raise the purse on the bottom third, to help the
teams that need help the most.

Even better would be a pay structure with a straight graduation from
1st, to last, but I'm we'll probably never see that.

For example, at Talladega, Michael Waltrip finished 9th. His payout was
$83,500. Carl finished 11th, his was $128.866. Some of this pay structure
is a holdover from the days when NASCAR promoted 60-70 races a year, & was to induce the top cars to show up. How long ago did that ship sail?

To make sure the money goes where it does the most good, ANY car that falls
out before half way, without a verifiable reason would have their payout cut
by half. In other words, it would no longer be cost effective to S & P.

I want to see the payouts raised, I just hate to see someone like Kevin
Conway who in 3 races, ran 4 laps total, & in each, collected within
500. of what someone got for running the entire race. That's just wrong.
In a perfect world, I'd love to see all cars start that be capable of
winning.

Racing is not a perfect world. Never was, never will be. I'd just like see
NASCAR help the teams that are really trying & stop subsidizing the ones
that just show up to take the money & run. Run for home that is.